Ihlas SovbetovPersonal Website
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ABOUT

PERSONAL DETAILS
ihlas.sovbetovlsclondon.co.uk
NA
Istanbul, Turkey
Hello. I am an Academician Economist Econometrician Analyst of Finance Education Consultant
To save time lets just assume I'm never wrong
Welcome to my Personal profile Available as Co-Author for academic researches & publishing

BIO

ABOUT ME

I am an academician and a research fellow at London School of Commerce. I was born in 1988 in Dashoguz, Turkmenistan, and I command on 5 languages: English, Turkish, Turkmen, Russian, and Uzbek.

I have 2-years of professional and 5-years of academic working experience. I have several scientific publications in the fields of economics, econometrics, and finance. Meantime, I also serve as educational consultant both in Turkey and in United Kingdom. I am married.

HOBBIES

INTERESTS

MY RESEARCH AREAS:
Macroeconomics, International economics, Labour economics, Asset pricing, Stock markets, Financial derivatives, Time-series econometrics, Cross-section panel data analysis, Generalized method of moments (GMM)

MY COMPUTER SKILLS:
Wordpress, Php, HTML, Javascript, Pascal, Mysql, MS Excel coding, Sketch Up, Adobe After Effects, Adobe Photoshop, Corel Draw, Macromedia Flash, SEO, Eviews, SPSS, and STATA.

MY HOBBIES:
Empirical/Applied economcics and finance research papers; Reading newspapers & books; Drinking coffee milk; Web designing; Programming & Coding; Doing math; Soccer (I am fan of Chelsea & Fenerbahce); Swimming; Traveling new places.

FACTS

NUMBERS ABOUT ME

34
RESEARCH PAPER
765
HOURS OF CODING
27
WEBSITE
21,580 km
TRAVEL DISTANCE
218
SOCCER MATCH
920
CUPS OF COFFEE

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RESUME

  • EDUCATION
  • 2019
    2014
    Istanbul

    ECONOMICS - PHD

    ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY

    Thesis: An Early Crisis Signaling Framework: Dynamics of Inflation and Unemployment in New Keynesian Framework during Tranquil and Recessionary Periods.
  • 2013
    2012
    London

    BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION & FINANCE - MBA

    CARDIFF METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY (London Campus)

    Thesis: How Capital Structuring Influences the Quality of Earnings.
  • 2011
    2007
    Istanbul

    BANKING & INSURANCE - BACHELOR

    MARMARA UNIVERSITY

    Thesis: Keynesian Context of Turkish Economic Policies after 1980.
  • JOBS AND EXPERIENCE
  • 2020
    present
    Istanbul/Dubai

    FULL STACK PHP DEVELOPER

    INTEGRAL GROUP

    Developing & Managing advanced ERP System for company's internal use. Plus, Web development & maintenance.
  • 2016
    2020
    Istanbul/London

    FELLOW & REPRESENTATIVE

    LONDON SCHOOL OF COMMERCE

    Representing LSC in Turkey; Giving conferences & seminars; Participating to education fairs; Carrying academic researches & making scientific publications under LSC affilition.
  • 2014
    present
    Istanbul

    EDUCATIONAL CONSULTANT

    TRIPAL EDUCATIONAL SERVICES

    Giving conferences & seminars on studying in the United Kingdom; Serving consultancy on university & visa applications for the United Kingdom.
  • 2012
    2013
    London

    WEB/GRAPHIC DESIGNER

    AMITY AGENCY CAT

    Designing brochures & leaflets for marketing; IOS/Android mobile applications; Web design & SEO optimization using ajax, php, javascript, jquery, html, css.
  • 2010
    present
    Istanbul

    FRONT/BACK END DEVELOPER

    E-DOSTLUK/LONDONVIZYON/TRIPAL/WORDPRESS/Q2A/PHPFOX...

    Web design & SEO optimization using ajax, php, javascript, jquery, html, css.
  • HONORS AND AWARDS
  • 2014
    2018
    Istanbul

    FULLY FUNDED PHD SCHOLARSHIP

    ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY

    Bursary PhD student; Teaching assistantship.
  • 2014
    2018
    Istanbul

    DISTINCTION DEGREE (summa cum laude)

    ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY

    I accomplished 8 PhD modules with all AA grade. GPA of 4.00/4.00.
  • 2014
    2018
    Istanbul

    PROJECTS OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH (grant 28,500 TL),

    ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY

    I have been granted 28,500 TL for conducting scientific research project on subject namely "How Do Macroeconomic Indicators Interact? Figuring Out The Lag Between Nominal and Real Variables".
  • 2017
    2017
    Istanbul

    YOKDIL ENGLISH LANGUAGE EXAM: 95/100

    HIGHER EDUCATION COUNCIL OF TURKEY

    YOKDIL is English Language examination designed and owned by Higher Education Council of Turkey. The exam is used for academic purposes.
  • 2017
    2017
    Istanbul

    ALES ACADEMIC EXAM: 80/100

    HIGHER EDUCATION COUNCIL OF TURKEY

    ALES is postgraduate academic examination designed and owned by Higher Education Council of Turkey. The exam is used for academic purposes, especially in admissions to postgraduate programs as well as in academic job employments.
  • 2017
    2017
    Istanbul

    IELTS ACADEMIC EXAM: CEFR LEVEL C1 (7.5/9.0)

    BRITISH COUNCIL

    The International English Language Testing System (IELTS) is the world’s most popular English language proficiency test for higher education and global migration, with over 3 million test takers annually.
  • 2012
    2013
    London

    DISTINCTION DEGREE (summa cum laude)

    CARDIFF METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY

    I accomplished 8 master's modules plus dissertation with the only distinction degree among MBA grads in 2013.
  • 2007
    2011
    Istanbul

    FULLY FUNDED BACHELOR SCHOLARSHIP

    MINISTRY EDUCATION OF TURKEY

    I took 53rd place on National University Enterance Examination for Fully Funded Bachelor education in Turkey among 30K participants.
  • 2007
    2011
    Istanbul

    DISTINCTION DEGREE (summa cum laude)

    MARMARA UNIVERSITY

    I graduated my bachelor study with GPA of 87/100, and I took the first place among 2011 grads at the department in School of Banking and Insurance, Marmara University.
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PUBLICATIONS

PEER REVIEWED PAPERS
  • 2019

    Causes of Failure of the Phillips Curve: Does Tranquillity of Economic Environment Matter ?

    + Show Abstract
    ABSTRACT: Although empirical literature regarding the Phillips curve is sizeable enough, there is still no wide consensus on its validity and stability. The literature shows that the Phillips relationship is fragile and varies across countries and time periods; a statistical relationship that appears strong during one decade (country) may be weak the next (other). This variability might have some grounds for idiosyncrasy of a country and its economic environment. To address it, this paper scrutinizes the Phillips relationship over 41 countries over the period 1980-2016, paying attention to how inflation dynamics behave during tranquil and recessionary periods. As a result, the paper confirms the variability of the Phillips relationship across countries, as well as time periods. It documents that the relationship holds in the majority of developed countries, while it fails to hold in emerging and frontier economies during tranquil periods. On the other hand, the relationship totally collapses during recessionary periods, even in developed markets. This shows that tranquillity of economic environment is significantly important for the Phillip trade-off to work smoothly. Moreover, both backward- and forward-looking fractions of inflation remarkably increase during recessionary periods as a result of the Phillips coefficient loses its significance within the model. This indicates that markets become more inflation-sensitive during these periods.
    CITATION: Sovbetov, Y. & Kaplan, M. (2019). Causes of Failure of the Phillips Curve: Does Tranquillity of Economic Environment Matter? The European Journal of Applied Economics, 16(2), pp. 139-154.https://doi.org/10.5937/EJAE16-21569
    Yhlas Sovbetov & Muhittin Kaplan The European Journal of Applied Economics
  • 2019

    Empirical examination of the stability of Expectations–Augmented Phillips Curve for developing and developed countries

    + Show Abstract
    ABSTRACT: The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment; therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with country-specific factors and the examination time periods. Considering the importance of this trade-off for policy-makers, this study aims to examine validity and stability of expectations-augmented Phillips Curve across 41 countries focusing on three different time periods between 1980 and 2016. The study documents several findings both in country-specific and in panel estimation analysis. First, we find that forward-looking characteristic of inflation picks up weight after 1990’s which indicates that inflation became more sensitive to the expected prices. Second, we observe that inflation in developed markets is more forward-looking comparing to emerging and frontier markets. This indicates that developed markets dear forward-looking price expectations more than other markets. Third, we find that that both forward- and backward-looking Phillips Curve fails to work in Brazil, Greece, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Romania, and Turkey. We address it to their long history of high and volatile inflation.
    CITATION: Sovbetov, Y. & Kaplan, M. (2019). Empirical examination of the stability of Expectations–Augmented Phillips Curve for developing and developed countries. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 26 (2/619), pp. 63-78.
    Yhlas Sovbetov & Muhittin Kaplan Theoretical and Applied Economics
  • 2019

    Phillips Curve Estimation during Tranquil and Recessionary Periods: Evidence from Panel Analysis

    + Show Abstract
    ABSTRACT: The empirical literature that covers Phillips Curve analysis during recessionary periods is notably scant. The Great Recession has rekindled a debate on the validity and stability of the Phillips Curve which is still ongoing. The basis for this debate is the observation that real activity dropped sharply without causing a drop in inflation. This paper carries out an empirical analysis for the classical expectation-augmented Phillips curve model across 41 countries from1980-2016 by distinguishing tranquil and recessionary periods separately. Based on the results of the research, the paper finds that dynamics of Phillips Curve changes during recessionary periods and the empirical relationship becomes no longer valid. These findings support the ongoing debate about the missing disinflation and collapse of the Phillips curve, but only during the recessionary periods. In the case of tranquil periods, the empirical relationship still seems to be valid.
    Moreover, the paper also observes that both backward-looking and forward-looking fractions of inflation gain weight and significance during recessionary periods. However, the paper remains indecisive about which exact fraction gains more weight and significance as the panel model does not incorporate these two fractions of inflation in a single hybrid framework simultaneously.
    CITATION: Sovbetov, Y. (2019). Phillips curve estimation during tranquil and recessionary periods: evidence from panel analysis. Istanbul Journal of Economics, 69(1), pp. 23-41. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0016
    Yhlas Sovbetov Istanbul Journal of Economics
  • 2019

    Interaction of Economic Freedom and Foreign Direct Investment Globally: Special Cases from Neglected Regions

    + Show Abstract
    ABSTRACT: This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of economic freedom on foreign direct investments inflows in both global and regional panel analyses involving 156 countries through the period of 1995-2016. Unlike to prior literature, it includes often neglected nations such as Fragile and Conflict-Affected states, Sub-Saharan, Oceanian, and Post-Soviet countries. The paper finds a positive impact of economic freedom on FDI under fixed-effects model in global case where a unit change in economic freedom scales FDI inflows up to 1.15 units. More specifically, all 9 regions also refer to positive and significant impact of economic freedom on FDI. The highest impact is recorded in European countries, whereas the lowest ones are documented in Fragile-Conflict affected states, Sub-Saharan zone, and Oceanian countries.
    CITATION: Sovbetov, Y. & Moussa, M. (2019). Interaction of Economic Freedom and Foreign Direct Investment Globally: Special Cases from Neglected Regions. Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, 3(2), pp.113-134
    Yhlas Sovbetov, Mohamed Moussa Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis
  • 2018

    Factors Influencing Cryptocurrency Prices: Evidence from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litcoin, and Monero

    + Show Abstract
    ABSTRACT: This paper examines factors that influence prices of most common five cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litecoin, and Monero over 2010-2018 using weekly data. The study employs ARDL technique and documents several findings. First, cryptomarket-related factors such as market beta, trading volume, and volatility appear to be significant determinant for all five cryptocurrencies both in short- and long-run. Second, attractiveness of cryptocurrencies also matters in terms of their price determination, but only in long-run. This indicates that formation (recognition) of the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies are subjected to time factor. In other words, it travels slowly within the market. Third, SP500 index seems to have weak positive long-run impact on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litcoin, while its sign turns to negative losing significance in short-run, except Bitcoin that generates an estimate of -0.20 at 10% significance level.
    Lastly, error-correction models for Bitcoin, Etherem, Dash, Litcoin, and Monero show that cointegrated series cannot drift too far apart, and converge to a long-run equilibrium at a speed of 23.68%, 12.76%, 10.20%, 22.91%, and 14.27% respectively.
    CITATION: Sovbetov, Y. (2018). Factors Influencing Cryptocurrency Prices: Evidence from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litcoin, and Monero. Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, 2(2), pp. 1-27.
    Yhlas Sovbetov Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis
  • 2018

    Impact of Digital Economy on Female Employment: Evidence from Turkey

    + Show Abstract
    ABSTRACT: This paper investigates impact of e-economic activities on female employment rates in Turkey over 1994–2016. The analysis unveils three major findings. First, 80.74% of variations in female employment are accounted by e-commerce and control variables. Second, Autoregressive Distributed Lag analysis documents that these series (female employment, e-commerce and control variables) are cointegrated, thus, a unit increase in per credit card e-commerce transactions leads the female employment rate to grow by 0.13 units in long-run at 1% significance level, whereas a percentage increase in internet penetration rate in Turkey augments the rates by 0.33%. Third, error-correction model analysis refers that the system quickly corrects its previous period disequilibrium converging at a speed of 75.43%, and also documents that the lags of per credit card e-commerce jointly have short-run impact on female employment rates. Thus, the study concludes that developing e-commerce incentivizing policies might help to empower women in Turkey significantly.
    CITATION: Sovbetov, Y. (2018). Impact of Digital Economy on Female Employment: Evidence from Turkey. International Economic Journal, 32(2), pp. 256-270https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2018.1478868
    Yhlas Sovbetov International Economic Journal
  • 2018

    Does it take two to tango: Interaction between Credit Default Swaps and National Stock Indices

    + Show Abstract
    ABSTRACT: This paper investigates both short and long-run interaction between BIST-100 index and CDS prices over January 2008 to May 2015 using ARDL technique. The paper documents several findings. First, ARDL analysis shows that 1 TL increase in CDS shrinks BIST-100 index by 22.5 TL in short-run and 85.5 TL in long-run. Second, 1000 TL increase in BIST index price causes 25 TL and 44 TL reducation in Turkey's CDS prices in short- and long-run respectively. Third, a percentage increase in interest rate shrinks BIST index by 359 TL and a percentage increase in inflation rate scales CDS prices up to 13.34 TL both in long-run. In case of short-run, these impacts are limited with 231 TL and 5.73 TL respectively. Fourth, a kurush increase in TL/USD exchange rate leads 24.5 TL (short-run) and 78 TL (long-run) reductions in BIST, while it augments CDS prices by 2.5 TL (short-run) and 3 TL (long-run) respectively. Fifth, each negative political events decreases BIST by 237 TL in short-run and 538 TL in long-run, while it increases CDS prices by 33 TL in short-run and 89 TL in long-run. These findings imply the highly dollar indebted capital structure of Turkish firms, and overly sensitivity of financial markets to the uncertainties in political sphere. Finally, the paper provides evidence for that BIST and CDS with control variables drift too far apart, and converge to a long-run equilibrium at a moderate monthly speed.
    CITATION: Sovbetov, Y. (2018). Does it take two to tango: Interaction between Credit Default Swaps and National Stock Indices. Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, 2(1), pp.129-149
    Yhlas Sovbetov Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis
  • 2016

    Impact of Brand Dynamics on Insurance Premiums in Turkey

    + Show Abstract
    ABSTRACT: This paper examines influences of brand dynamics on insurance premium productions in Turkey using a dynamic GMM panel estimation technique sampling 31 insurance firms over 2005-2015. The results reveals that brands trust appears as a chief driving force behind premium production where its unit increase augments premium outputs by 5.32 million Turkish Liras (TL). Moreover, the brand value of firms also appears a statistically significant determinant of premium sales, but its size impact remains limited comparing to brand trust, i.e. a million TL increase in brand value generates only 0.02 million TL increase in sales. On the other hand, the study also documents a strong momentum driven from past years premium production with trade-off magnitude of 1 to 0.85. This might imply a higher loyalty-stickiness of customers in Turkey, as well as a self-feeding "bandwagon effect".
    CITATION: Sovbetov, Y. (2016). Impact of Brand Dynamics on Insurance Premiums in Turkey. Turkish Economic Review, 3(3), pp.453-465.
    Yhlas Sovbetov Turkish Economic Review
  • 2015

    How IFRS Affects Value Relevance and Key Financial Indicators? Evidence from the UK

    + Show Abstract
    ABSTRACT: This paper has two contributions to the International Financial Reporting Stands (IFRS) adoption literature. First is the scrutinizing impact of IFRS adoption on value relevance in the UK with TEST-A analysis under the H01 hypothesis. The second contribution is capturing the impact of IFRS adoption on key financial indicators of firms with the TEST-B analysis that hypothesizes H02.The statistical differences of items of two different reporting standards are examined with non-parametric tests as all input variables failed the Shapiro-Wilk and Lilliefors normality tests in TEST-A. The finding rejects the H01 hypothesis for BvMv, and agrees that IFRS has impact on value relevance. Besides, Ohlson’s (1995) model documents that the coefficient of dummy variable (MODE) is positive. Therefore, the analysis concludes that IFRS has positive impact on value relevance. The aftermath of TEST-B rejects the H02 hypothesis for all profitability ratios (ROE, ROCE, ROA, PM) and gearing ratios (GR). It concludes that profitability and gearing ratios are affected by IFRS adoption, whereas efficiency-liquidity ratios are not. Also, in Forward Stepwise regression analysis only ROCE, ROA, and PM ratios show significant results. The analysis documents positive and significant impact of IFRS on these three ratios.
    CITATION: Sovbetov, Y. (2015). How IFRS Affects Value Relevance and Key Financial Indicators? Evidence from the UK. International Review of Accounting, Banking and Finance. 7(1), pp. 73-96.
    Yhlas Sovbetov International Review of Accounting, Banking and Finance
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RESEARCHES

1 / 4Research Date : 2015/2016

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS OF CENTRAL ASIAN POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES

EMPIRICAL STUDY OVER 6 COUNTRIES

This research studies economic and social developments of Central Asian Post-Soviet countries and their mutual cooperation during 1991-2016. Our sample consists of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. We primarily examine economic and social indicators of these countries and propse appropriate growth models.

CONTRIBUTIONS OF ZEKAT MECHANISM IN ALLEVIATION OF POVERTY

THEORETICAL INSIGHTS WITH OVERLAPPING GENERATION MODEL

This study attempts to demonstrate the contributions of the zakat institution to poverty alleviation. We integrate the zakat system into Overlapping Generations (OLG) framework, classifying people into three classes as zakat-receivers, zakat-payers, and neither receivers nor payers, and introducing birth and class-switching probabilistic approach. We assess efficiency of zakat mechanism in eradicating poverty in comparison with a simple taxation system. Throughout various simulative scenarios and cases, we show that the zakat system is actually an optimal taxation threshold for an efficient poverty alleviation.

BUSINESS ON THE SOCCER PITCH

IMPACT OF SOCCER PERFORMANCE ON STOCKS OF SPONSORS

This research examine impact of soccer performance of the team on its sponsors' stocks. The analysis covers 2002-2018 time horizon and 20 most famous football teams all over the world.

We mainly use Deloitter Football Money League reports of 2002-2018. We deal with how soccer performance of teams affect their Kit Manufacturers' and Shirt Sponsors' stock prices.

A GENERALIZED EARLY CRISIS WARNING SYSTEM

A ROBUST EWS OVER 41 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE

This study develops a new Early Warning System (EWS) model for predicting any types of economic and financial turmoil between 1980-2016 over 41 countries using Distributed Lag Logit technique (DLL) under Almon's (1965) approach in multivariate framework.

In addition, we also develop a brand-new threshold selection methodology which outperforms existing ones in many dimensions. We test this threshold selection method on our DLL UWS model and averagely it correctly predicts 96.13% of total crisis events in advanced, while issuing only 11.94% false signals during tranquil periods.

MARKET DYNAMICS OF CRYPTOCURRENCIES

A COMPREHENSIVE REPORT FOR LEADING DIGITAL ASSETS

We study factors that influence prices of most common five cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litecoin, and Monero over 2010-2018 using weekly data. The study employs ARDL technique and documents several findings.

First, cryptomarket-related factors such as market beta, trading volume, and volatility appear to be significant determinant for all five cryptocurrencies both in short- and long-run. Second, attractiveness of cryptocurrencies also matters in terms of their price determination, but only in long-run. This indicates that formation (recognition) of the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies are subjected to time factor. In other words, it travels slowly within the market.

BUILDING AI BID-WINNING ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR UZEX

UZBEKISTAN COMMODITY EXCHANGE

Using PHP and Javascript, I have developed an AI-based framework that makes several suggestions including optimal bid-winning price for each commodity at UzEx. This project is completed for Ingtegral Group.

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SKILLS

PROGRAMMING SKILLS
I have intermadiate knowledge in MySql, MySqli, HTML, HTML5, CSS, PHP, Javascript (Web development), Q2A, PhpFox, OJS
LEVEL: ADVANCEDEXPERIENCE: 11 YEARS
PhpCssHtmlJava
DESIGN SKILLS
I have advanced knowledge in Adobe Photoshop, Adobe After Effects, Illustrator, Corel Draw, and Macromedia Flash.
LEVEL: ADVANCEDEXPERIENCE: 11 YEARS
PhotoshopCorel Draw
OFFICE SKILLS
I have advanced knowledge in Microsoft Office programs such as MS Word, MS Excel, MS PowerPoint, MS Outlook, and etc.
LEVEL : EXPERTEXPERIENCE : 15 YEARS
Ms ExcelMs WordMs PowerPoint
SOCIAL SKILLS
I have good level of social skills. I easliy communicate and interact with other people, both verbally and non-verbally, through gestures, body language and our personal appearance. I have been carrying a role of International Alumni Ambassador for Turkey and Turkmenistan at Cardiff Metropolitan University.
LEVEL : ADVANCEDEXPERIENCE : 6 YEARS
Event productionMedia relation
DATA ANALYSIS SKILLS
I have good level of skills in data analysis. I used to do academic research publications that contain comprehensive statistical analyses.
LEVEL : ADVANCEDEXPERIENCE : 10 YEARS
EviewsSPSSSTATA
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CONTACT